In exteremis and on the campaign, the United States and Mexico achieved in the early hours of Saturday an agreement with which are suspended tariffs of 5% on all Mexican products that were going to enter into force on Monday. A small respite for Mexico, to which Fitch had just reduced the debt to BBB – two steps above “junk bond” -. Despite the last minute agreement, the protectionist sword of Yarn Weight Chart Damocles will remain in the hands of Trump for the next few months. And the fact is that the commercial tensions with the United States -market that sends 80% of its exports- are the last ingredient that Mexico adds to its explosive macroeconomic cocktail. The country has been plagued by a series of structural problems for decades, such as weak GDP growth when compared to other emerging markets (2% in 2018, with a forecast of 1.6 for this year), high annual inflation (4.83). % last year) and the fact that it is estimated that half of the active population does not pay direct taxes, that is, they work in the underground economy.
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Mexico is the main trading partner of the United States, ahead of China. With the aim of boosting the economy, the president of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has set the goal of the country growing at 4% per year when it leaves the Presidency in 2024. To achieve this, López Obrador plans to increase social spending, but, above all, its strategy focuses on raising the production of state oil company Pemex, a company that has gone from extracting about 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2009 to just 1.8 million (bpd) in 2018. Currently, the oil company represents approximately 18% of the total income that Mexico receives, so increasing production would have a positive impact on GDP.
However, the immediate future does not look good for Pemex: the oil company is the most indebted in the world with a total of 106,000 million dollars. And it is that Fitch also reduced last Thursday Pemex’s debt rating to BB +, rating that makes it “junk bond” and that, therefore, causes the Yarn Weight Chart have to face higher interest rates if you need to go to the market. Precisely, the commercial problems with the United States are some of the reasons s that Fitch cites to lower Pemex’s rating: “The continued weakness in the macroeconomic perspective, which is exacerbated by external threats such as commercial tensions,” the rating agency said in a note. In addition to the macroeconomic problems that Mexico is going through, Trump’s commercial threats come at a time when the Latin American country is the largest trading partner of the United States over China. Between January and April 2019, the sum of exports and imports between the United States and Mexico was around 203,179 million dollars, higher than the 174,663 million dollars that the first power has exchanged with China, according to data from the Office of the American census.