The supervisor has revised upwards his growth estimates for this year from 2.2% in March to 2.4% – two tenths more than the Government believes – because the first half of the year has been more positive than I expected, especially since business investment grew above expectations. For the second quarter it expects an advance of the GDP of 0.6% – one tenth less than the previous one – to moderate growth in the second half of 2019. By 2020 and 2021 it maintains its growth forecasts at 1.9% and the 1.7% respectively. Although unemployment will fall by 12% in three years – the supervisor believes that below the structural unemployment rate, which is at 13% -, the Bank of Spain continues to warn that the rise of 22% of the Minimum Forever 21 Size Chart Salary (SMI) to 900 euros per month will hinder job creation. “The effects of the rise in the minimum wage that came into force at the beginning of the year will tend to moderate the dynamism of employment in the coming quarters,” the supervisor notes in his report.
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The institution estimated at the end of last year that the measure would reduce 125,000 jobs to the economy, 0.8% of jobs, but warned of the high degree of uncertainty surrounding this forecast. However, before the positive start of the occupation in the first quarter, the Tax Authority – which also predicted shortly after the Bank of Spain that the rise would cost between 40,000 and 125,000 jobs – admitted that now saw no effect of the rise. Given this, the Secretary of Employment, Yolanda Valdeolivas, said this week that “the least that can do this body [in reference to the Bank of Spain] is to acknowledge its error” before affiliation data that defined as “mostrencos.”
For the rest, the Bank of Spain has not taken into account the Stability Program – and the tax increases – set by the Government for 2020 for Brussels, so its estimates give a deficit for this year of 2.4 % of GDP, four tenths more than the Government predicts.
The general director of Economy and Statistics, Forever 21 Size Chart has responded this morning that when the Continuous Sample of Labor Lives of the Social Security of 2019 is published in the summer of 2020, they will publish an analysis of the effect of the increase in the minimum wage. As the data of the EPA that have come out are not detailed, but aggregated, they indicate that an evaluation of the measure can not be made yet. With the Bank of Spain’s detailed methodology, the SMI rise of 8% in 2018 destroyed some 15,000 jobs – that is, 0.1% of total employment. In 2017, 20% of workers who lost their jobs and returned to the labor market again did so with a salary lower than the SMI of 2018.