The electoral campaign already stalks the Spanish political climate. The parties move cards with radically different projects. Its acronyms, its economic model. However, for Alvise Lennkh, deputy director of Public Finance of the European rating agency Scope Ratings – the alternative to the Anglo-Saxon hegemony of Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch – the recipe is clear: to attack head-on structural problems such as unemployment or the deficit, without forgetting that the braking in the Bylaws Template hits by contagion effect. It is still in transition. We have seen in recent years a fundamental restructuring of its economy and we appreciate in a very positive way the de-indebtedness of households and non-financial corporations, which is important to reduce the imbalance that caused the crisis. The Spanish economy requires that this debt reduction continue. We also see very positive the reorganization and capitalization of the banking sector and the restructuring with respect to the external balance. Therefore, the country has grown above the average of the euro zone and we believe that this will continue this year and next. But this does not diminish the risk of certain vulnerabilities that still persist. The main risk is that the policy relies on the economic cycle, when the economy is slowing down in the United States, Europe and, therefore, Spain. The country is in transition and with work undone.
It does not mean for bad. That depends on how the policy uses the time it has as a result of the positive economic cycle, which still sustains the country, but is cyclical. In Spain it will be difficult to have a government before summer and the budgets could be extended all year round. How does all this influence the economy?
We have Spain in A- stable for two years. We will see three general elections in four years and these will not result in a government quickly, but it is important that the one that is formed has a stable parliamentary majority and a mandate to implement reforms. The latter were weak and there was talk of revoking the current ones; that is a risk. For this year experts say that the deficit will be reduced only by the political break and the absence of measures Spain has been growing around 3% these years and has not used this time po to reduce the structural deficit, which is around 3% and the worst in the Bylaws Template. This implies that, when Spain faces a new crisis, the fiscal operating space will be much smaller. These months can be seen as a contemplative time, but a government that has the mandate to introduce reforms must arrive. And the last two years, with governments in the minority, we have not seen it.